A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
